Charts| DWAS| JFAD| Harlequin

[Hags Labs]

On 9/10/2024 at 6:45 PM, Arturo said:

The fact that LG7 lead will be released on either DWAS 9th, 10th, or 11th tracking week

I would have opted for around week 20 if possible which means either moving DWAS up to like June/July OR moving LG7 lead down to Nov/Dec....both were kinda bad given A Bar Song's dominance in the summer and the inevitable Xmas freeze in the winter.

Blocking Bruno on Spotify during LG7 lead release week so DWAS doesn’t get any stream by chance and Dance in the Shadow can debut at #1  

[OreoÀDeux Pronounshe/him]

On 9/10/2024 at 11:20 PM, Imtired1616 said:

Just adding to this....

It's kinda sus that she released DWAS , a song with a title that could be associated with the movie, right before the massive press for the movie started. And from what she's said, the song was written, recorded, and video shot....all in the past few months. Very sus to me. It definitely feels like there's more going on here than what we know. Gaga is always very intentional. 

Not only is the title, the sound and the image heavily J:FAD coded, it is also a romantic duet with a male artist. And Gaga rarely does collabs or out of the blue droplets. 

Edited September 10 by OreoÀDeux

[ARTPOP]

On 9/11/2024 at 12:33 AM, Arturo said:

From Pulse:

"Regarding the callouts, I'm just going to quote this post that Austin made in the "Illusion" thread when there was another poster, who is now banned, pointed out about it and resumes it perfectly.

Au$tin said:

Yeah, we haven't been able to publicly see callouts for 2 years now, this could be getting stellar or shitty callouts, either way we wouldn't know.

The best we've got is Rate the Music, but that one's been unreliable since Twitter stans discovered it over a decade ago lol. This is #5 there, by the way.

 

As a side note, I've seen that there's another poster who posted 'them' from another music forum. That said, unless I'm missing something, a quick MMI National Callouts Google search brings me to their site and when I see the latest Top 40 edition (9/9), the Top 40 callout has only 30 songs, so "Die With a Smile" isn't there. There's even a part of the .pdf file which says the following:

Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars song from the upcoming Joker 2, "Die with a Smile" had a strong debut last week at 11 and the strength of the song continues as it sits at 12 this week with top 5 sales and streams. Callout has been slow for the first two weeks but I have a feeling this may really come alive when the movie releases a little less than a month from now on October 4th."

https://drive.google.com/file/d/11ET-Nhrzwi1_kDs7IkkhjeqCVcQppM5E/view?pli=1

Charli's 360 is #11 on Pop Radio and hasn't even debuted on MMI call outs yet. It's at the top of the "Hot Zone" where DWAS is 2nd.

  Hide contents

Not MMI saying DWAS is from Joker 

 

So if I understand correctly, those callouts were fake and nothing proves DWAS is at #40? Who would make that up and why?

[OreoÀDeux Pronounshe/him]

Hopefully the pre-sales stats are also fake 

[BenG]

On 9/10/2024 at 11:44 PM, OreoÀDeux said:

Hopefully the pre-sales stats are also fake 

Brave of you to assume that the fake stats would be worse than reality

[Leptine Pronounshe/him ☂️]

On 9/11/2024 at 12:30 AM, OreoÀDeux said:

Not only is the title, the sound and the image heavily J:FAD coded, it is also a romantic duet with a male artist. And Gaga rarely does collabs or out of the blue droplets. 

Maybe it was the original song supposed to be in the movie, then Joaquin and Philips decided to scrap it along with the scene attached to the song and Gaga reworked the song as duet with Bruno out of revenge with JFAD coded visuals.

[Arturo]

5 Pop Adds up to 166/172 stations (97%)

• KDHT-FM
• WABD-FM
• WKQI-FM
• WKSC-FM
• WLDI-FM

[Arturo]

1 Rhythmic add

• KUBT-FM

[JennyWayne Pronounsshe/her]

Long post ahead so feel free to scroll past it if you're not interested in Dutch charts TL;DR below for those who want to know the context.

 

So I deciphered the situation on the Dutch charts a bit more. Last week the Netherlands' Top 40 was as follows:

1. Terug in de Tijd (=) (5th week at #1)

2. The Sound Of Silence - Cyril Remix (+1)

3. A Bar Song (Tipsy) (-1)

4. Die With A Smile (+3)

_______________________

13. BIRDS OF A FEATHER (+3)

_______________________

33. Taste (NEW)

 

The charts are made up of streaming + radio. If we would rank them on streaming, the ranking would be as follows:

Spoiler

Spotify Netherlands:

1. Die With A Smile (currently #2)
2. Terug in de Tijd (currently #3, overtaken by DWAS today for the first time this tracking week)
3. BIRDS OF A FEATHER (currently #8)
4. Taste (currently #9)
5. A Bar Song (Tipsy) (currently #14)
6. The Sound Of Silence - Cyril Remix (currently #15)

Spoiler

AM Netherlands:

1. Die With A Smile (currently #1, which as far as I know has been uninterrupted since September 5)
2. BIRDS OF A FEATHER (currently #2)
3. Taste (currently #4)
4. Terug in de Tijd (currently #7, don't know its position it had earlier this week)
5. A Bar Song (Tipsy) (currently #12)
6. The Sound Of Silence - Cyril Remix (currently #33) ()

Spoiler

Youtube Music Netherlands:

1. Terug in de Tijd (currently #1)
2. Die With A Smile (currently #3)
3. Taste (currently #5)
4. The Sound of Silence (CYRIL remix) (currently #15)
5. A Bar Song (Tipsy)  (currently #24)
6. BIRDS OF A FEATHER (currently #80) (downside of no MV I suppose)

This is pure anecdotal evidence as I haven't found any numbers to support this claim but Spotify is far & away the biggest music streaming service in the Netherlands. Even a big majority of Apple users use Spotify instead of AM. I'd wager its market share should roughly be around 70-80%.

 

So in terms of Dutch radio, these are the spins from yesterday from the 6 biggest stations (I mainly focused on these since they have a combined market share of 58.1% as of June 2024 according to this website. Once you get to the other radio stations you'll get to genre-specific stations with very low market shares.

• NPO Radio 2 plays a variety of music. Most of it is pre-2000s but they'll sometimes play new music.
• QMusic owns the Top 40 nowadays so their music is mainly centered towards the charts.
• Radio 538 mainly plays Top 40 music, although they sometimes tend to have a preference for dance music.
• SkyRadio is mostly AC music. Biggest advantage here is that the music isn't interrupted by DJ's and that they barely play any dance music.
• Radio 10 mostly plays music from the 1970s to the early 2000s. They rarely play new music.
• Radio 1 is mostly news programming and doesn't have as much music as the other stations, although they do play a variety of genres.

These are the spins from these stations from yesterday (September 10) according to relisten.nl :

Spoiler

NPO Radio 2:

1. Die With A Smile - 2 spins
2. BIRDS OF A FEATHER - 1 spin
3. A Bar Song (Tipsy), Taste, Terug in de Tijd, The Sound of Silence (CYRIL remix) - 0 spins

Spoiler

QMusic:

1. Taste - 8 spins
2. The Sound of Silence (CYRIL remix) - 5 spins
3. A Bar Song (Tipsy), Die With A Smile - 4 spins
4. Terug in de Tijd - 3 spins
5. BIRDS OF A FEATHER - 2 spins

Spoiler

Radio 538:

1. A Bar Song (Tipsy) - 7 spins
2. Die With A Smile - 5 spins
3. The Sound of Silence (CYRIL remix) (4 spins)
4. Terug in de Tijd - 2 spins
5. Taste - 1 spin
6. BIRDS OF A FEATHER - 0 spins

Spoiler

SkyRadio:

1. A Bar Song (Tipsy) - 6 spins
2. Die With A Smile - 3 spins
3. The Sound of Silence (CYRIL remix) - 2 spins
4. BIRDS OF A FEATHER, Taste, Terug in de Tijd - 0 spins

Spoiler

Radio 10:

0 spins for all songs including DWAS (yet they played ARUTW )

Spoiler

Radio 1:

1. BIRDS OF A FEATHER, Die With a Smile - 1 spin
2. A Bar Song (Tipsy), Taste, Terug in de Tijd, The Sound of Silence (CYRIL remix) - 0 spins

DWAS' radio numbers are really great for a Gaga song. I'm pretty sure it's doing better than ROM or Shallow, which would mark DWAS as Gaga's biggest radio hit in the Netherlands since Born This Way or probably even Alejandro(?)

 

So essentially what it comes down to is:

Terug in de Tijd is probably our biggest competition on paper. In the weekly tracking week it's slightly outpacing us on Spotify. DWAS is outpacing it on AM and Terug in de Tijd is outpacing it on YouTube. From what i've seen they're almost on par on radio, with a slight edge to DWAS. If DWAS can hold on to #1 on AM and Spotify this week and the streams stay stable, we should absolutely have a shot.

A Bar Song (Tipsy) is tanking on streaming but is being carried hard by radio (a BBH100 Tease). It peaked at #2 for 4 consecutive weeks, although it fell to #3 last week.

The Sound Of Silence - Cyril Remix is also being carried by radio, but seemingly not by as much as A Bar Song. Despite this it surpassed Bar Song last week on the charts, even though they're on par on radio but Bar has the edge on streaming. Not sure why Sound of Silence is charting higher, unless I'm missing something.

Taste is holding steady on streaming and is picking up really well on radio, particularly on QMusic. It will probably head to #1 in a few weeks. Songs in the top 40 tend to need a few weeks to reach #1, so it might take 2 or 3 more weeks if radio continues to push it as hard as it does.

BIRDS OF A FEATHER is slightly below us on all the big streaming services and isn't doing well on radio, so it shouldn't chart higher than us this week.

 

The most difficult thing is that:

1. I have no idea how the point tabulation works. I don't know if the point ratio between streaming and radio is 50/50.
2. I don't know the streaming numbers from AM and YouTube.
3. I don't know the overall radio AI, although based on spins on the big stations it seems to be doing well. This might explain why A Bar Song fell below Sound of Silence last week.

Its current peak of #4 is already Gaga's highest charting song since 2011 and is tied (with Uptown Funk) for Bruno's highest charting song since 2010. regardless of what happens, it's Gaga's best performing song here in a looooonnnggg time.

 

TL;DR DWAS might be heading for #1 this Friday on the Dutch Top 40(?) Worst outcome seems to staying at our current peak of #4.

 

[Imtired1616]

"DWAS' radio numbers are really great for a Gaga song." 

[JennyWayne Pronounsshe/her]

On 9/11/2024 at 1:27 AM, Imtired1616 said:

"DWAS' radio numbers are really great for a Gaga song." 

Our standards  but it's among the most played on the big stations

[mattelbutch]

On 9/11/2024 at 1:30 AM, OreoÀDeux said:

Gaga rarely does collabs

Oghs wouldn’t agree with you

[Imtired1616]

Wait. Wasn't it just at 20 million? Did the audio really grow 2.5 million in a day? 

 

 

Edited September 10 by Imtired1616

[Dean Judaster]

Gaga's most popular tracks on YouTube Music, September 10, 2024.

[OnionGirl]

Rotten Tomatoes

J:FAD 62% (+1)

[Imtired1616]

On 9/10/2024 at 7:53 PM, Dean Judaster said:

Gaga's most popular tracks on YouTube Music, September 10, 2024.

Bad Romance over Shallow? Maybe YouTube isn't a dead and rotting platform? 

[Imtired1616]

On 9/10/2024 at 7:55 PM, OnionGirl said:

Rotten Tomatoes

J:FAD 62% (+1)

BACK BACK BACK AGAIN!

[Osama]

On 9/10/2024 at 6:33 PM, Arturo said:

From Pulse:

"Regarding the callouts, I'm just going to quote this post that Austin made in the "Illusion" thread when there was another poster, who is now banned

  Reveal hidden contents

Not MMI saying DWAS is from Joker 

 

That's me

[OreoÀDeux Pronounshe/him]

[xo_hours]

On 9/10/2024 at 7:55 PM, OnionGirl said:

Rotten Tomatoes

J:FAD 62% (+1)